Another great Lawrence Yun article

New-home sales recovery unlikely before 2009, says NAR chief economist

Nashville Business Journal
Monday, December 10, 2007



Existing-home sales are projected to trend upward in 2008 but a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

"The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming," Yun says in a release today, adding the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data.

"Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels," he says.

Among Yun's assertions:

Improvement in the Northeast housing market reaffirms a trend of recovery.
Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth-highest on record, and rise to 5.70 million in 2008.
Home price growth in the affordable midsection of America will help raise the national median existing-home price slightly in 2008 and price appreciation will return to more normal patterns in 2009.
Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash.
"We can't emphasize enough how much local conditions vary, even within a given area," Yun says. "So it's important for consumers to make decisions based on local market conditions."