Statistics Show Market Recovery Is Underway by Robin Peterson / President of Coldwell Banker Burnet

Statistics Show Market Recovery Is Underway
by Robin Peterson, President Coldwell Banker Burnet

Many of you have heard me address what I call the “anatomy of a recovering market.” There are several ingredients that must be present for a recovering market such as stabilizing home sales, sustainable sales prices, declining inventories, a more balanced buyer-seller market, and increased affordability. As we look at the current statistics, the positive trends and conditions in our local housing market are more encouraging than they’ve been for some time.

Home Sales Stabilize

One important aspect of a recovering market is the stabilization of sales. In the Twin Cities metro area, we’ve experienced 14 consecutive weeks of double-digit increases in pending sales compared to the same weeks last year, according the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). The most recent report from MAAR notes that April sales were even stronger than our improving March sales. There were 5,211 pending sales in April across the market, up 23.8 percent from April 2008. This is the highest number of signed purchase agreements in April since 2005. Closed sales in April also were good: Up 7.3 percent over last April.

Home Inventories Fall

Home inventory is another key component of a recovering market. As of May 11, the total active listings were 26,450, 19.5 percent lower than during the same period last year. But despite the lower number of houses for sale, there is still a great inventory of homes available. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, move-up buyer, or looking for a luxury home, there is plenty of selection.

Movement Back to Sustainable Prices; Declines Attract Buyers

During the boom years, home prices kept increasing to unsustainable levels. But during the last few years, we’ve seen price declines which are now leveling off. There have been larger price declines among lender-mediated properties, but if you look just at traditional properties, the median sales price is $205,000, just 8.5 percent lower than last April. This is great news for people who are looking to buy a home. They have great buying power in a market that is characterized by increasing price stability.

Consumers are noticing these opportunities and now have a very positive attitude about the housing market. A recent Gallup Poll of consumers across the country found that 71 percent of them believe that now is a good time to buy a home.

Housing Affordability Improves

In addition to attractive home prices, we also continue to enjoy great interest rates. Locally, interest rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages are available in the high 4 percent range, and in the mid four percent range for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. This combination of low interest rates and good home prices is resulting in excellent affordability. MAAR reported that the May housing affordability index was 219, 45.5 percent higher than last year. This is the highest it’s ever been in our market since MAAR first began tracking affordability in 1990.

Month’s Supply of Inventory Tops Out

Our market has been a buyers’ market for quite some time, but during the last several months we’re seeing a return to a more balanced market. In May the month’s supply of inventory was 7.7, 24.5 percent lower than the May 2008 number of 10.2. This is definitely going in the right direction, as a five-month supply of homes for sale is considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

Builders/Developers Cut Production

Across the country, builders have been adjusting their production to meet demand. The Chairman of NAHB Joe Robson noted that builders are doing a “great job of thinning the supply of unsold homes and positioning themselves for a steady housing recovery.”

But it’s important to note that locally, builders are optimistic about the improving sales and filed an increased number of building permits in April. The Builders Association of the Twin Cities reported that there were 419 building permits filed in April, which was 43 percent higher than April 2008.

These favorable conditions, including government programs to encourage home purchases, are attracting more buyers. Many of our sales associates are working with first-time buyers who are excited about home values and the tax credit of up to $8,000 they will receive under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Now is a great time to buy a home, especially for first time buyers.

During this spring home buying and selling season, buyers are out in force. They realize that our housing conditions are improving and there are opportunities they just can’t pass up.

Best wishes for a productive and successful spring and summer.

Robin